In response to the Office for Budget Responsibility's first Fiscal Risk report, which found that ageing and technology cost pressures make health spending the biggest risk to fiscal sustainability, Sally-Marie Bamford, Director of Strategy and Research at the International Longevity Centre - UK (ILC-UK), the UK's leading think tank focusing on longevity, ageing and population change said:
“Today’s OBR Fiscal Risks report shows that the ageing of our population is the greatest single risk to government spending by driving up health costs over the long run. As our recent SOS2020 report showed, we will need transformative change in the health sector in order to ensure long run sustainability, which in particular will mean getting smarter with innovation.
Within the NHS, too many funding mechanisms still do not reward or encourage innovation, with payments too often based on output and not outcome, and Clinical Commissioning Group funding regulations discouraging the bold moves needed to create long-term cost savings, whilst still maintaining high levels of quality.
As one of the largest components of age-related public spending, healthcare is at the forefront of the challenge of ageing and delivering long run productivity growth in healthcare is likely to be one, if not the, most important element in ensuring a sustainable older society.”
In the SOS2020 report we modelled future health spending scenarios and found:
Health spending as a proportion of GDP
- In the “transformative change” scenario, health spending rises from around 6% of GDP in 2019-20 to 8% by 2064-65.
- In the “gradual convergence” scenario, health spending rises from around 6% of GDP in 2019-20 to 11.4% by 2064-65.
- In the “no policy change scenario”, health spending rises from around 6% of GDP in 2019-20 to 16.4% by 2064-65.
The primary balance – the difference between non interest receipts and expenditure
- In the “transformative change scenario”, the primary balance falls from a surplus of around 2% of GDP to a deficit of 1.9%.
- In the “gradual convergence scenario”, the primary balance falls from a surplus of around 2% of GDP to a deficit of 5.3%.
- In the “no policy change scenario”, the primary balance falls from a surplus of around 2% of GDP to a deficit of 10.3%.
Download the report, 'Towards affordable healthcare: Why effective innovation is key' at http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/towards_affordable_healthcare_why_effective_innovation_is_key
Dave Eaton (email@example.com) or 020 7340 0440.
The Office for Budget Responsibility's first Fiscal Risk report can be downloaded from http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/frr/fiscal-risk-report-july-2017/
SOS 2020 was established by ILC-UK with the aim to raise awareness of the need to adapt our economy and society to the big strategic challenges posed by an ageing population, and will outline the specific policy measures needed to achieve this goal. It will illuminate the issues that face us and develop fully considered and costed solutions that will act as a “call to action” to policy-makers and politicians.
This second report in the SOS health series draws on the learning and some of the innovations from the last report. We explore the potential for innovation application and diffusion in health care within the UK and critically how the ‘right type’ of innovation could make health care better and cheaper, essentially doing ‘more with less’.
The International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK) is a futures organisation focussed on some of the biggest challenges facing Government and society in the context of demographic change.
Much of our work is directed at the highest levels of Government and the civil service, both in London and Brussels. We have a reputation as a respected think tank which works, often with key partners, to inform important decision-making processes.
Our policy remit is broad, and covers everything from pensions and financial planning, to health and social care, housing design, and age discrimination. We work primarily with central government, but also actively build relationships with local government, the private sector and relevant professional and academic associations.
Date :13 July 2017
The Rt Hon. Stephen Dorrell, Chair of the NHS Confederation and former Secretary of State for Health and former Chair of the Health Select Committee, and Dwayne Johnson, Director of Adult Social Care, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council have agreed to join our fantastic list of speakers at the Future of Ageing conference.
Dr Margaret McCartney, GP, author and regular contributor on Radio 4’s Inside Health, will also present at the conference. Dr Islene Araujo de Carvalho of the Department of Ageing and Life Course at the World Health Organisation will also focus on health and care issues, taking a more global perspective.
Conference attendees will also hear from:
- John Cridland CBE, Head of the Independent State Pension Age Review
- John Pullinger CB, National Statistician, UK Statistics Authority
- Professor Sarah Harper, Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
- Linda Woodall, Director of Life Insurance and Financial Advice, and sponsor of the Ageing Population project, Financial Conduct Authority
- Jonathan Stevens, Senior Vice President, Thought Leadership, AARP
- David Sinclair, Director, International Longevity Centre - UK
- The Rt Hon. the Lord Carey of Clifton, Archbishop of Canterbury 1991-2001
Join as at the Future of Ageing Conference on Wednesday, 9th November. Our Earlybird prices must end on 31st August, so sign up now to take advantage of this special discounted rate.
Date :24 August 2016
- The UK is home to some of the world’s leading innovation in healthcare but we can learn from successes in USA, India, Australia, Africa and Europe
- ILC-UK urge health leaders to work to ensure that the £22bn savings being asked of the NHS act to stimulate not prevent innovation
The NHS should be supported to continue to invest in innovation in order to save more money in the long-term argues a major new report ‘Creating a sustainable 21st century healthcare system’ by the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK).
‘Creating a sustainable 21st century healthcare system’, sponsored by EY, is the first report in ILC-UK’s SOS 2020 Health series. It highlights how a ‘perfect storm’ of demographic and wider economic and social trends are converging to push up the cost of healthcare across the globe. The report showcases examples of innovation from across the world which could save lives and money if introduced more widely.
The UK’s healthcare system provides a third of the exemplary case studies showcased in the report, but the report suggests that more work needs to be done to share and spread innovation in the UK, and that there’s much to learn from other leading markets such as India, Australia, Europe and the US.
The report points out that the 15 million people who have a long term health condition account for 70% of the total health and care spend in England. Yet across Europe, on average only 3% of healthcare expenditure is allocated to prevention and public health programmes.
The NHS is committed to achieving £22bn efficiency savings through productivity gains of 2% or 3% a year between now and 2020. The ILC-UK research has shown this target will be very challenging without real innovation. The OBR highlight productivity in the health sector only rose by around 1% per annum on average between 1979 and 2010.
The report suggests that a concerted focus on innovation and prevention - developing more empowered health consumers, whilst also maximising the potential of big data - would help to deliver significant savings in the long-term.
Phase two of the report, due out in 2016, will model the impact of applying the leading global innovations showcased in the first report to new markets to highlight the potential global savings of sharing innovation.
Baroness Sally Greengross, ILC-UK Chief Executive said “Whilst innovation can save money in the long term, it requires up-front investment. And the nature of introducing new or dual systems can mean that for the first few years costs go up and services don’t improve.
The picture is not as bleak as it may sound however. Advances in health technology have the potential to significantly influence patient’s access to health care and the way that health care is delivered. Big data can revolutionise the way services are focussed on the individual.
But for us to maximise the potential we have to create a climate for innovation in the health service. We might also accept that if we are to innovate to reduce costs and improve services over the long term, public and private investment is vital. Government must ensure that the £22bn savings being asked of the NHS act to stimulate not prevent innovation.”
Shaun Crawford, EY Global Insurance Sector Leader said “‘The report has sourced a bank of robust innovative global case studies that demonstrate the potential to deliver better health outcomes and reduce costs across the world at a time of growing pressure on our health care systems. Empowering consumers and harnessing big data will be crucial to delivering long-term savings for the sector.”
Global health innovations
- The ‘Stay on Your Feet’ programme in Australia is preventing falls among older people by targeting their knowledge, attitudes and behaviours, resulting in a 22% lower incidence of self-reported falls and a 20% decrease in fall-related hospitalisations.
- Canterbury District in New Zealand has developed a vision of ‘one system, one budget’, bringing in experts to support clinicians to redesign care pathways and workflow. The result has been reduced admissions across acute care, as well as a 20% drop in nursing homes admissions.
- Healthcare providers in South Central Pennsylvania used ‘big data’ to identify ‘superutilisers’, then developed a coordinated care service for these people, resulting in inpatient admissions dropping by 34% after enrolment in the programme, equating to savings of $1,242,000 for 138 patients in 12 months.
Date :17 September 2015
Sustainable Older Society 2020 – Health is a major piece of work from ILC-UK, kindly supported by EY. Launched in July 2014, SOS 2020 Health will focus on fostering innovation in health and social care systems. Taking a global perspective to the most important challenges to health and social care, SOS 2020 aims to raise national and international awareness of problems and possible solutions, in which we all have a vested interest.
Year 1 of the project will source a bank of robust innovative case studies from a range of high, middle and low income countries. The case studies, grouped around emerging healthcare trends ILC-UK have identified, will highlight innovative ways in which countries are responding to the twin challenges of population ageing and financial pressures healthcare systems are experiencing. Importantly these case studies will provide examples of providing high-quality healthcare whilst improving the financial sustainability of these health systems.
Year 2 of the project will then apply some of these selected case studies from year 1 to different country settings. Using a policy on/policy off approach, ILC-UK will quantify the potential financial savings different countries can make, if they are able to adopt one or more of these innovations sourced in year 1.
By the end of the 2 year project, ILC-UK and EY will have created a bank of robust innovative case studies, fully costed, which we believe show promise in creating sustainable healthcare systems in a global context. This important and timely piece of work will act as a ‘call to action’ to policy makers, highlighting the need to look beyond national borders for joint solutions and international learning.
For more information on the Sustainable Older Society 2020 programme, contact Jonathan Scrutton, Research Fellow at ILC-UK, at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Date :17 August 2015
SOS 2020 is a major new programme of work led by ILC-UK which will raise awareness of the need to adapt our economy and society to the big strategic challenges posed by an ageing population.
SOS 2020 will outline the specific policy measures needed to achieve this goal. It will illuminate the issues that face us and develop fully considered and costed solutions that will act as a “call to action” to policy-makers and politicians. Above all SOS 2020 aims to raise national and international awareness of problems and possible solutions in which we all have a vested interest.
In an increasingly interdependent world, there is a need to look beyond national shores for collective consensus and joint solutions. SOS 2020 will give us the opportunity to do this.
ILC-UK launched SOS 2020 in July 2014, with the support of Aviva and EY, where we began two projects:
- Financial Sustainability - which will focus on how we can deliver sustainable yet adequate retirement incomes
- Health Sustainability – which will focus on fostering innovation in health and social care systems
The aim of this project is to draw out some credible scenarios about resilience in retirement over the next twenty years in response to the new freedoms at the point of retirement. We envisage creating three credible scenarios, each with clear driving forces which combine to shape the future in different ways. These scenarios will be qualitative and quantitative – utilising compelling stories and narratives alongside robust modelling work in order to demonstrate the impact of the different scenarios on financial resilience. This will enable us to make important recommendations to policy makers and to show the various impacts of making different policy choices.
The aim of this project is to create a bank of robust innovative case studies of sustainable health systems, fully costed, and then apply these to different countries from which we can assess their suitability to drive innovation at the global level. We will identify innovations across four agreed thematic areas, these will include: the prevention agenda, dementia, technology, information analysis, health literacy, integrated care, research and drug development and incorporate the wider financing of health and social care (for example which systems incentivise a sustainable approach, insurance systems and self-care systems).
By identifying sustainable innovations in health and care from across the world and then trying to apply these in different country settings, we ultimately hope to offer robust and verifiable models that will improve performance (better health outcomes and reduced costs) at a time of growing pressure.
While undertaking these projects ILC-UK will continue to seek support for other strands of work as part of SOS 2020. This programme of work has the potential to be a leading catalyst with an evidence led, solution orientated approach, not only in the fields of health and retirement featured today, but also in Communities, the built environment and transport systems which, collectively, will shape the quality of life for us and our children.
If you would like more information on any aspect of the project please do get in touch:
- Ben Franklin (email@example.com) will be leading on Sustainable Retirement Income.
- Sally-Marie Bamford (firstname.lastname@example.org) will be leading on Sustainable Healthcare.
- Jonathan Scrutton (email@example.com) will be the overall coordinator for the project.
Date :08 August 2014
Reserve your place at the 2017 Future of Ageing Conference.
Date :15 August 2017
The ILC-UK has launched a Commission on Dementia and Music, designed to explore the current and potential role of music-based interventions in the prevention, diagnosis, treatment, care and end of life care for people with dementia. As part of this high level Commission, we are seeking written evidence from a range of experts, framed by two overarching questions.
Date :01 August 2017
In response to the Office for Budget Responsibility's first Fiscal Risk report, which found that ageing and technology cost pressures make health spending the biggest risk to fiscal sustainability, Sally-Marie Bamford, Director of Strategy and Research said...
Date :13 July 2017
A new report by the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK) and supported by Royal London finds that those who received financial advice in the 2001-2007 period had accumulated significantly more liquid financial assets and pension wealth than their unadvised equivalent peers by 2012-14
Date :13 July 2017
As a futures organisation focused on the biggest challenges facing Government and society in the context of demographic change, we work across the lifecourse, including its beginning, and end.
Date :12 July 2017
A new report by the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK) argues that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could plunge medical practice back into the dark ages and negate longevity improvements made over the past 50 years.
Date :28 June 2017